Grading the 2022 White Sox pitching staff

To complete the grading process, which started with the previously-published position-player review, here are assessments of the 2022 White Sox pitchers. To reiterate some context from that post, these grades are more art than science due to the subjective nature of how much 107expectations for a player should affect their grade. My goal is to balance actual player performance against their expectations and probable role (both short-term and long-term) entering the season.

Per usual, I consider an average grade to be someplace on the C/C+ borderline. An ‘A’ is the highest grade and an ‘F’ is the lowest grade.

I’m using 25 innings pitched as the cutoff with the exception of a trade deadline acquisition. In ascending order of innings pitched….

Jake Diekman (RP): 26 G, 19.1 IP, 28.6% K, 12.2% BB, 4 HR, 6.52 ERA, 5.08 FIP, -0.6 bWAR, -0.1 fWAR

Sometimes, first impressions are not lasting impressions. Diekman opened his White Sox career with two sterling appearances, suggesting maybe Ethan Katz showed him One Neat Trick to Not Walk Everyone. Unfortunately, it was a short-lived illusion, and it didn't take long for Diekman to unravel. The lefty struggled against same-handed batters to the tune of a .913 OPS-against, so there weren't any situations where he could be relied upon. Grade: F

Aaron Bummer (RP): 32 G, 26.2 IP, 25.6% K, 8.5% BB, 2 HR, 2.36 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 0.6 bWAR, 0.3 fWAR

Looking at the above stat line, one might assume that Bummer was a stalwart in the bullpen when he was healthy, but that couldn't be further from the case. His Win Probability Added (WPA) was -0.50 for the season, and to make matters worse, he did most of his best work after the Sox had been de facto eliminated. Bummer struggled badly with control in April, and while he only walked two batters the rest of the season, struggles with stranding inherited runners persisted. Nine meltdowns against five shutdowns isn't going to cut it, regardless of your peripherals. Grade: D+

Dallas Keuchel (SP): 8 G, 32.0 IP, 12.2% K, 12.2% BB, 6 HR, 7.88 ERA, 6.18 FIP, -1.1 bWAR, -0.3 fWAR

Dallas Keuchel. Grade: F

Joe Kelly (RP): 43 G, 37.0 IP, 31.2% K, 13.5% BB, 2 HR, 6.08 ERA, 3.06 FIP, -0.6 bWAR, 0.5 fWAR

Kelly gave up five runs to the New York Yankees in his second appearance of 2022 and his season numbers never recovered. A look at his ERA shows a guy who let innings get out of hand quickly, but a look at his peripherals suggests there was plenty of bad luck involved. Kelly's 64 percent ground ball rate was excellent, and he only allowed two home runs all season. The trouble is that a high walk rate and a .382 BABIP-against make for a bad combination, and Kelly was never the stopper that FIP or xERA suggest he was. All of this suggests that he could be a good bounce-back candidate, but Kelly did not get the job done in 2022. Grade: D-

Matt Foster (RP): 48 G, 45.0 IP, 21.8% K, 8.8% BB, 6 HR, 4.40 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 0.2 bWAR, 0.2 fWAR

Foster was one of the bullpen's most dependable arms in 2022 until a particularly ugly four-game stretch in June that began with him losing back-to-back games against Texas and ended with him struggling in garbage time after Tony La Russa decided he could no longer trust him. The spin rate on his fourseam has dropped since his 2020 breakout and it doesn't seem to play as well off of his changeup anymore. Foster's a fine low-leverage arm, but so are a lot of guys. Grade: C-

Jimmy Lambert (RP): 42 G, 47.0 IP, 22.1% K, 11.8% BB, 4 HR, 3.26 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 0.8 bWAR, 0.3 fWAR

During the summer months, the White Sox bullpen was hit with injuries and guys drawing the mysterious "unavailable" tag. It felt like every night, La Russa was repeatedly sending underqualified arms out there to their doom in high-leverage spots. Amidst the chaos, it was Lambert who quietly settled in as a guy who was up to the task. There was nothing flashy about the performance, just a guy who avoided dangerous contact and seemed able to keep his wits about him in big spots. At the end of the season, Jimmy Ballgame finished second (albeit a distant second) in the bullpen in WPA. The legend continues in 2023. Grade: B+

Tanner Banks (RP): 35 G, 53.0 IP, 22.6% K, 8.3% BB, 5 HR, 3.06 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 0.4 bWAR, 0.3 fWAR

You might assume from the above stat line that Banks was yet another breakout star of the 2022 bullpen, but he wasn't really given a chance to be. The lefty had the lowest average leverage of all pitchers used by the White Sox in 2022. You can't point to struggles in high leverage (.396 OPS) or medium leverage (.599 OPS), or against opposite-handed batters (.531 OPS) as the reason why. It's therefore a bit surprising the Sox didn't let Banks challenge the Peter Principle, especially given bullpen attrition and how often they seem to let Jose Ruiz do it.

Did I…did I just become a Tanner Banks stan? Grade: B-

Liam Hendriks (RP): 58 G, 57.2 IP, 36.2% K, 6.8% BB, 7 HR, 2.81 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 1.7 bWAR, 1.6 fWAR

Hendriks was excellent yet again in 2022, exactly matching his WPA of 2.01 from 2021. Yet, it's hard to shake the sentiment that he wasn't doing enough. The large investment in such a premium closer caused the Sox to cut corners offensively, which contributed to low-scoring games that raised the demand for his services. Yet, the Sox remained conservative in their deployment of Hendriks, only using him three times prior to the ninth inning when not trailing. Given the frequent unavailability of Joe Kelly and Kendall Graveman, saving Hendriks for the ninth was often a curious decision. However, this isn't a knock on the closer; he's not the manager. Grade: A

Jose Ruiz (RP): 63 G, 60.2 IP, 25.7% K, 12.5% BB, 9 HR, 4.60 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 0.3 bWAR, -0.1 fWAR

With these recaps, sometimes I get to write about a player and learn something new about their season or am reminded of an interesting nugget that was lost to time. And sometimes, I have to write an honest-to-goodness player summary of Jose Ruiz.

Opposing hitters in….

This is who Ruiz is every year. He’ll mow ’em down in mop-up duty and fool the manager into giving him a shot at some real work, only for him to quickly remind everyone why that's a bad idea. Grade: D

Davis Martin (SP): 14 G, 63.1 IP, 17.8% K, 7.1% BB, 8 HR, 4.83 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 0.1 bWAR, 0.6 fWAR

If you think that season line doesn't do Martin justice, you’d be right. In the last game of the year, Martin gave up nine runs in 1.2 innings to the Twins before departing with an injury. Before that, his ERA was at 3.65 and his FIP was at 3.83, which better resembles the value he had to the White Sox this season. The sixth starter for most of the year, Martin was asked to either start the game or serve as the "bulk" guy after an opener 12 times. He gave the Sox at least five innings in ten of those twelve games, with one of the two exceptions being the aforementioned injury-hampered appearance on October 5. Unintimidated by the major leagues, Martin generally threw strikes and pitched with confidence that outpaced the quality of his stuff. We’ll surely be seeing more of him. Grade: B+

Kendall Graveman (RP): 65 G, 65.0 IP, 23.2% K, 9.1% BB, 5 HR, 3.18 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 1.0 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR

The Undertaker had the highest leverage of any bullpen pitcher next to Hendriks, and while the overall numbers were strong, his season WPA was right about league average. Indeed, many of Graveman's slip-ups were costly, including single-handedly losing a game in Colorado for one of the most frustrating losses of the year. Further complicating matters was his frequent "unavailability" with a typical amount of rest. He led the Sox in appearances, but had just the 37th-most in MLB. All of this made year one of the Graveman experience feel a little underwhelming compared to the good aggregate numbers. Grade: B-

Reynaldo López (RP): 61 G, 65.1 IP, 24.8% K, 4.3% BB, 1 HR, 2.76 ERA, 1.93 FIP, 1.5 bWAR, 2.0 fWAR

López’ second go-round as a relief pitcher was a wild success, as he built on the progress he made in the second half of 2021. His fastball velocity was the highest it's ever been, but more significantly, the harder slider he's been throwing since converting to relief has become a legitimate weapon. That's the second pitch that López has been lacking for years, and now that he has two high-quality offerings to work with, he looks like he could be a stopper near the back of the bullpen. Grade: A

Vince Velasquez (RP): 27 G, 75.1 IP, 21.6% K, 7.8% BB, 11 HR, 4.78 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 0.4 bWAR, 0.4 fWAR

Nobody but a few people somewhere in the White Sox front office had any idea why Velasquez was signed. That said, the Vinny Velo experience was … not that bad? Velasquez began the year as a rotation stopgap before transitioning to mop-up work, but to his credit (and everyone's surprise), he held his own. He wasn't able to pitch deep into games, and his run prevention in the rotation was not great (5.26 ERA), but he kept the team in it more often than not. The Sox managed to win six of the nine games Velasquez started, so folks who were dumbfounded by the signing (myself included) will have to look elsewhere for scapegoats. Grade: C–

Michael Kopech (SP): 25 G, 119.1 IP, 21.3% K, 11.5% BB, 15 HR, 3.54 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 2.2 bWAR, 1.0 fWAR

Kopech got pretty close to 120 innings, which is right around where it felt like he might sit coming into this season. Through the season's first two months, Kopech was virtually untouchable, but injuries and (likely) fatigue started to get to him as the season wore on. His fastball velocity fluctuated a great deal from start to start and noticeably dropped from the 95-96 mph range he averaged when he was at his best. Still, this is as predictably uneven as the experiement was going to be. It's a step forward, and hopefully something he can build on after recovering from knee surgery. Grade: C+

Lance Lynn (SP): 21 G, 121.2 IP, 24.2% K, 3.7% BB, 19 HR, 3.99 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 0.8 bWAR, 1.9 fWAR

Lynn rejoined the White Sox in mid-June after recovering from knee surgery and for quite some time, he looked rough. His ERA was a stomach-turning 6.42 through July until things calmed down and he looked like his old self in the last two months (2.43 ERA). Homers were a real problem, but Lynn mitigated the damage with a miniscule walk rate. It's not the season the Sox expected out of Lance, but his performance down the stretch was encouraging that a healthier version can find success next year. Grade: C

Johnny Cueto (SP): 25 G, 158.1 IP, 15.7% K, 5.1% BB, 15 HR, 3.35 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 3.5 bWAR, 2.4 fWAR

Signed as some vague form of Keuchel insurance, Cueto surpassed virtually every expectation one could put upon him at age 36. By varying deliveries and staying around the strike zone, Cueto never gave anything away and provided quality starts all season long. He pitched deep into games and even completed the eighth inning four times in 2022. The entertainment, leadership, and veteran presence were all gravy on top of that.

Thanks for everything, Johnny. You did the best you could, but the White Sox weren't good enough for you. Grade: A

Lucas Giolito (SP): 30 G, 161.2 IP, 25.4% K, 8.7% BB, 24 HR, 4.90 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 0.4 bWAR, 1.5 fWAR

Giolito's fastball velocity and spin rate took a concerning turn for the worse in 2022, and his results went right along with them. He looked great through his first five starts until COVID interrupted his season. He recovered to throw two strong outings, but things unraveled after that, and there's been plenty of speculation as to whether the aftereffects of the virus hampered him. Regardless of the cause, Giolito's performance puts him on the uncomfortably-long list of guys looking for bouncebacks in 2023. Grade: D

Dylan Cease (SP): 32 G, 184.0 IP, 30.4% K, 10.4% BB, 16 HR, 2.20 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 6.4 bWAR, 4.4 fWAR

What a season. Those who preached patience with Cease (you can count myself among the skeptics) had their faith rewarded in a huge way. Dylan laid the groundwork for this year in 2021 when his slider turned into a premium out pitch. In 2022, Cease threw the slider even more often than his fastball, a plan of attack that proved to be an absolute nightmare for hitters. He was able to command his elite stuff in ways we’ve never seen before. The coolest feature of his season was throwing 14 straight starts in which he allowed one or fewer earned runs. He won't win the Cy Young award, but he's put himself on the short list of frontrunners for 2023. Grade: A

The Class Rank:

(Photo by Kamil Krzaczynski/USA TODAY Sports)